Cisco’s VNI report – near-universal strong growth in connectivity in Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and The Middle East and Africa
Thought Leadership, Networking, Data Centre, Mobility, SDN
IP traffic is set to explode over the coming years, according to Cisco’s 12th annual VNI report, with more IP traffic predicted to cross global networks during the five years 2017–2022 than in all 32 prior ‘internet years’ combined.
Each year, the Cisco VNI report forecasts global IP traffic growth for fixed and mobile networks, painting a highly detailed picture of internet use both now, and in the near future. This year’s report once again paints a picture of near-universal strong uptake in connectivity.
Since the VNI forecast began in 2005 traffic has increased 56-fold as more people, devices and applications have accessed IP networks. But that’s nothing compared to what’s coming, with over a billion extra people and over ten billion extra devices set to come online by 2022. In order to meet these challenges, Global service providers are focused on transforming their networks to accommodate changing traffic types, usage patterns, and data volumes.
A few key stats from ‘Western Europe’, ‘Central and Eastern Europe’, and ‘Middle East & Africa’
According to this year’s report Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and MEA all continue to show significant growth in uptake of, and engagement with, connectivity. Western Europe is projected to maintain its status as a global leader. Central and Eastern Europe will continue to rank somewhere towards the middle of the global league tables, while MEA will exhibit some of the most significant growth of any region.
Number of internet users
Western Europe will remain in second place globally, and MEA will show strong growth.
- 89% of Western Europe’s population will be online by 2022 (up from 85%, and well ahead of global averages). Only North America will have higher penetration, at 94%. Both Western Europe and North America will demonstrate lower growth than other regions, reflecting their status as relatively mature connected economies.
- Central and Eastern Europe will be the third most online area by 2022 (with 73% of the population online).
- MEA will continue to have the lowest online penetration, at 32% by 2022, (up from 23% in 2017). However, this will represent the largest proportionate growth in digital adoption of any area.
Average traffic generated per user
Traffic-per-user will show dramatic growth everywhere, with Western Europe, again, in second place globally only to North America.
- Western Europeans will generate 98GB each per month by 2022 (compared to 36GB in 2017) – well ahead of the global average. North America dominates per-user traffic, with 261 GB per user per month predicted by 2022.
- Central and Eastern Europe will grow from 17GB per user per month to 48GB, with a fairly average CAGR of 24%.
- Although it will have the lowest overall traffic MEA will show the strongest proportionate growth, rising from 9 GB per month to 37 GB – a CAGR of 32%.
Western Europe will continue to be the second-most connected area of the world, with only North America having more networked devices per person.
- Western Europe will reach 9.4 networked devices per person by 2020 (up from 5.4 in 2017). North America will dominate at 13.4.
- Central Europe will remain in the middle of the rankings at 3.9 devices (up from 2.5 in 2017), and will remain slightly above the global average.
- MEA will remain at the bottom of the rankings at 1.4 devices (up from 1.1 in 2017).
This picture is set to change significantly. Latin America, Asia Pacific and MEA will all rise up the leagues, and by 2022 will have a higher proportion of video traffic than North America, Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe.
- 79% of North America’s and 78% of Western Europe’s traffic will be video by 2022 – below the global average. These areas also show the smallest percentage-point rise.
- Central and Eastern Europe and MEA show the highest rise in the proportion of their traffic that is video, (rising by 17 percentage points each).
As today, Broadband speeds in Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and MEA by 2022 are projected to be middling-to-low compared to global averages.
- Western Europe’s 2017 and projected 2022 broadband speeds (38 Mbps and 76 Mbps – third in the world) tally almost exactly with global averages. This represents 2x growth – the second-lowest growth of any area.
- Broadband speeds in Central and Eastern Europe are set to rise from 33 Mbps in 2017 to 47 Mbps in 2022 – well below global averages, and fourth in the world. At 1.4x C&EE shows the slowest rate of growth globally.
- MEA will remain bottom-of-the-field for broadband speeds (20 Mbps by 2022), but will have the highest proportionate growth of any area.
Mobile connection speeds:
Western Europe’s mobile networks will continue to lead with the world’s highest average mobile connection speeds.
- Western Europe’s average mobile connection will move from an average 16 Mbps in 2017 to 51 Mbps in 2022, (remaining at nearly double the global average). North America will be in second place, moving from 16 Mbps to 42 Mbps.
- Central and Eastern Europe’s mobile speeds will remain at around half those of Western Europe, (26.2 Mbps compared to 15.7 in 2017 – closing the gap on the global average, but still slightly below).
- MEA will experience the strongest proportionate growth in mobile speeds, but will remain at the bottom of the global ranking, moving from 9.4Mbps to 15.3 Mbps.
Looking at broader global trends, annual global IP traffic is set to more-than triple by 2022 to 4.8Zb per year, with 60% of the world’s population finally moving online. The number of networked devices and connections is set to move from 18 billion to 28.5 billion, with more than half of these formed of machine-to-machine and IoT connections.
Between 2017 and 2022 average fixed broadband speeds across the world will more than double from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps. Average global mobile connection speeds will show a similar trajectory, doubling from 24.4 Mbps to 54 Mbps. During this same period global IP video traffic is set to quadruple, gaming traffic will grow nine-fold, and VR and AR traffic will skyrocket, moving from 0.33 exabytes a month globally to 4.02 exabytes.
For a more detailed breakdown of the VNI report’s findings by country and region please visit Cisco’s VNI Forecast Highlights tool.